If the general elections in Germany on Sunday last week are anything to go by, New Labour should brace themselves for the worst. After the disappointing results in 2005 that ousted Gerhard Schröder from power and forced Germany’s oldest political party, the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands, or SPD, into a so-called ‘grand coalition’ under Angela Merkel, the SPD now saw their share of the vote slashed to a meagre 23 percent, their worst result in the history of the republic. Turnout also hit an all-time low, only about 72 percent of Germans eligible to vote actually did. Calculated on the base of all registered voters, this means that only 16.5 percent of the people decided to support the social democrats. For a party that considers itself representing the entire population and not just particular groups or interests, what Germans call a Volkspartei, Sunday’s results must seem a slap in the face.
Angela Merkel, the old and new German chancellor, can now form a centre-right coalition government, her preferred option. Although her party, the Christlich Demokratische Union, or CDU, didn’t do quite as well as expected, Merkel did a remarkable job in convincing the general public that the old government, the ‘grand coalition’ between CDU and SPD, was not really up to the job but that, nonetheless, she’s the right person to lead the country out of a recession under a more ‘pro-business’, ‘pro-market’ government with the FDP. Even her fiercest opponents agree that it is quite an achievement to win an election as the incumbent under these circumstances. Merkel did a good job in claiming the coalition’s successes for herself while putting the blame on the SPD for all the failed attempts at resolving the key issues, e.g. reforming the health care system. The dire state the SPD is in was surely conducive to Merkel’s victory.
So what is going on with the centre-left in Europe? With Berlusconi in Italy, Sarkozy in France and Merkel in Germany, the continent’s largest economies are governed under the firm grip of conservative, or centre-right leaders. It looks as if the centre-left are struggling to convince the public that they have the right answers to the pressing challenges Europe’s facing today. IBSS delivers 600+ hits on searching ‘SPD’. The edited volume ‘Germany’s gathering crisis: the 2005 federal election and the grand coalition’ by Alister Miskimmon, William E. Paterson and James Sloam (Basingstoke:Palgrave Macmillan, 2009) looks at the wider socio-political conditions under which Merkel’s predecessor Schröder had decided to call early elections in 2005, a move that caused quite some excitement among commentators so used to the orderly and somewhat sober affair of German politics! Back then, Schröder faced a problem: he was convinced that his government’s concepts to reform the welfare state, labour market and social security systems – the notorious ‘Agenda 2010’ – was the right way forward. This was nothing short of a fundamental strategic repositioning of what social democracy, under Schröder, was supposed to be about in twenty-first century Germany. By incorporating a great deal of what (neo)liberals had been calling for (a more ‘flexible’ labour market, low income jobs employers don’t pay social security contributions for, and slashing benefit payments to the unemployed), parts of the opposition and a great deal of industry leaders applauded this seismic shift in German economic and social policy. Not surprisingly, however, these reforms proved a tremendous disappointment to many of the SPD’s loyal working class voters who increasingly started to turn their back on the party. The reforms imposed significant changes and hardship for a number of groups that helped to sweep Schröder into power in 1998: low income workers and families, and the huge number of unemployed in many parts of the country. The fact that his government received praise from the centre-right, and a good deal of business and lobbying groups, didn’t help to increase the popularity of the ‘Agenda 2010’ among those who felt the impact of these reforms first hand.
General public opinion and mainstream media in 2005 were hardly in favour of the government. After all, Schröder himself argued that early elections were needed because he was lacking support from his very own party. It was there and then that the slow demise of the SPD gained momentum: consistently losing a number of key local and regional elections in 2004 and 2005, people started wondering about the use of a social-democratic party that pretty much favours the same politics and ideas of reform as their centre-right opponents! People wondered why they shouldn’t vote for the ‘original’ if all parties seemed to advocate pretty much the same politics. The ‘pro-business’ FDP has gained in popularity ever since the SPD has been hitting low after low in the polls. On the other hand, long-standing centre-leftist supporters began to move to the somewhat more radical left, in particular to the newly founded ‘Linke’ party, headed by a former SPD party leader who left the party shortly after it had gained power in 1998 out of frustration at its drift to the right.
The SPD’s dilemma is not just a German phenomenon, however. A linked keyword search on ‘Social democratic parties’ and ‘Europe’ on IBSS prompts more than 200 hits. Simon Franzmann investigates the degree to which the centre-right and left in Europe have converged to similar policy models (‘Does a programmatic convergence across the West-European party families exist? A comparison of Christian and social democratic parties in Europe’, Österreichische Zeitschrift für Politikwissenschaft, 37:1, pp.79-98, 2008) . This helps explain why voters find it increasingly difficult to identify real, substantial differences between mainstream parties. William Paterson and James Sloam take a closer look at the history of the problems labour and social democratic parties are facing in Europe today (‘Is the Left alright? The SPD and the renewal of European social democracy’, German politics, 15:3, pp.233-248, 2006). During the 1990s, the moderate Left managed quite successfully to ‘reinvent themselves’ as a an alternative to centre-right and conservative parties, they argue. Without doubt, Tony Blair’s Third Way in the UK provided a blueprint for electoral success – the SPD positioned itself as the Neue Mitte (new centre), and the ‘réalisme de gauche’ in France marked a similar convergence. These parties suddenly appealed to moderate voters who were not so much hoping for entirely different policy regimes but, perhaps, new faces and a more ‘benevolent’ government that keeps existing institutions intact but somewhat cares a little more about social policy issues and socioeconomic equality and justice.
After a decade in power, many voice a desire for change regardless of the current government’s actual achievements. But the problems of centre-left parties are more fundamental. What should a modern social democracy look like? Many voters in Europe seem to think that the centre-left can’t give a good answer to this question. Surely, communication is an issue. IBSS provides chapter-by-chapter records of edited books, and I come across an interesting volume by searching ‘Political parties’ and ‘Political communication’ in ‘Europe’: although not precisely what I’m looking for, The EU expansion: communicating shared sovereignty in the parliamentary elections (New York, Peter Lang, 2008) contains a very interesting chapter by Frank Esser, Christina Holtz-Bacha and Eva-Maria Lessinger’s on the dullness of political campaigning in Germany (‘A low-key affair: German parties’ TV advertising’) – indeed, the campaign prior to Sunday’s elections had been a truly boring affair!
Certainly, communication is a big worry for New Labour in the UK. At the moment, it seems virtually impossible for Brown to place a positive message about his government in the media. It is safe to say that all his attempts to redirect public attention to his efforts to steer the economy out of recession (whether or not he’s been successful in that is another matter), keep falling on deaf ears. The other day, The Sun publicly announced that the paper is now supporting David Cameron. Since then, there are daily editorials about how New Labour allegedly let down its voters on virtually all policy issues. Gordon Brown frequently points out the UK’s ‘special relationship’ with the US, and is keen to position himself as close to Barack Obama as possible. New Labour is curious to learn about successful campaigning from the Democratic Party. But if there’s any chance for Brown to turn things around, perhaps he better look to Germany’s elections to learn a lesson. Although the political setup in the UK is different (Germany’s got a proportional system so that the number of MPs depends upon their party’s relative share of the vote), the electoral dynamics and issues New Labour are facing, are very close to what has been going on in Germany over the recent past. Martin Kettle makes this point in a recent comment in The Guardian. The SPD won the elections one year after Tony Blair had taken office, and have been modelling their policy proposals very much on New Labour policies. They now suffered a crushing defeat. Issues of trust aside, the main problem seems that in times of economic gloom, undecided, moderate voters tend to favour centrist, or centre-right charismatic leaders that propose pro-business solutions. It will be interesting to see if New Labour, under Gordon Brown, or more likely under a new leader after failed elections, will be able to appeal again to this group without putting of their core supporters even more!
Juljan Krause
Posted by juljan01 


Posted by tamsine
Posted by Rebecca
Blog feed